Darren Elkins vs Julian Erosa

MMA - April 13, 2025 12:15 AM

Darren Elkins have a 29.4% of winning.
Julian Erosa have a 70.6% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Darren ElkinsJulian Erosa
29.4%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Fanduel23529.9%B

Darren Elkins
235
Break Even29.9%
Probability29.4%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, Darren Elkins must be more likely than 29.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.4%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
Ceasers23030.3%C

Darren Elkins
Ceasers230
Break Even30.3%
Probability29.4%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Darren Elkins must be more likely than 30.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.4%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings22530.8%C

Darren Elkins
DraftKings225
Break Even30.8%
Probability29.4%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Darren Elkins must be more likely than 30.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.4%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetRivers22530.8%C

Darren Elkins
BetRivers225
Break Even30.8%
Probability29.4%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Darren Elkins must be more likely than 30.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.4%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetMGM22031.2%C

Darren Elkins
BetMGM220
Break Even31.2%
Probability29.4%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Darren Elkins must be more likely than 31.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.4%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag22031.2%C

Darren Elkins
Betonline.ag220
Break Even31.2%
Probability29.4%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Darren Elkins must be more likely than 31.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.4%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
70.6%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-26072.2%C

Julian Erosa
Betonline.ag-260
Break Even72.2%
Probability70.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Julian Erosa must be more likely than 72.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 70.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetMGM-27573.3%F

Julian Erosa
BetMGM-275
Break Even73.3%
Probability70.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Julian Erosa must be more likely than 73.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 70.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-27873.5%F

Julian Erosa
DraftKings-278
Break Even73.5%
Probability70.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Julian Erosa must be more likely than 73.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 70.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-28073.7%F

Julian Erosa
Ceasers-280
Break Even73.7%
Probability70.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Julian Erosa must be more likely than 73.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 70.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanduel-29074.4%F

Julian Erosa
-290
Break Even74.4%
Probability70.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Julian Erosa must be more likely than 74.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 70.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers-29574.7%F

Julian Erosa
BetRivers-295
Break Even74.7%
Probability70.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Julian Erosa must be more likely than 74.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 70.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

42.2% chance that Darren Elkins win or are within 3.5 points of winning.
57.8% chance that Julian Erosa win by 3.5 or more points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Darren Elkins (3.5)Julian Erosa (-3.5)
42.2%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings12045.5%F

Darren Elkins (3.5)
DraftKings120
Break Even45.5%
Probability42.2%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Darren Elkins (3.5) spread must be more likely than 45.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 42.2%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
57.8%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-16562.3%F

Julian Erosa (-3.5)
DraftKings-165
Break Even62.3%
Probability57.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Julian Erosa (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 62.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 57.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

49.0% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
51.0% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
49.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-10551.2%F

Over (2.5)
DraftKings-105
Break Even51.2%
Probability49.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 51.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 49.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag-11553.5%F

Over (2.5)
Betonline.ag-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability49.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 49.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
51.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-11553.5%F

Under (2.5)
Betonline.ag-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability51.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 51.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-12555.6%F

Under (2.5)
DraftKings-125
Break Even55.6%
Probability51.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 55.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 51.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.