Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

NFL - October 4, 2026 12:00 PM

Buffalo Bills have a 61.4% of winning.
New England Patriots have a 38.6% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Buffalo BillsNew England Patriots
61.4%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
DraftKings-16261.8%B

Buffalo Bills
DraftKings-162
Break Even61.8%
Probability61.4%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, the Buffalo Bills must be more likely than 61.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.4%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
Ceasers-20066.7%F

Buffalo Bills
Ceasers-200
Break Even66.7%
Probability61.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Buffalo Bills must be more likely than 66.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
38.6%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
Ceasers16038.5%A-

New England Patriots
Ceasers160
Break Even38.5%
Probability38.6%
GradeA-
For this to be profitable, the New England Patriots must be more likely than 38.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 38.6%, more likely, giving this bet a A- grade.
DraftKings13642.4%F

New England Patriots
DraftKings136
Break Even42.4%
Probability38.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the New England Patriots must be more likely than 42.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 38.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

50.0% chance that Buffalo Bills win by 3 or more points.
50.0% chance that New England Patriots win or are within 3 points of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Buffalo Bills (-3)New England Patriots (3)
50.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
DraftKings-11052.4%F

Buffalo Bills (-3)
DraftKings-110
Break Even52.4%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Buffalo Bills (-3) spread must be more likely than 52.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
50.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
DraftKings-11052.4%F

New England Patriots (3)
DraftKings-110
Break Even52.4%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the New England Patriots (3) spread must be more likely than 52.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

50.0% chance that Buffalo Bills win by 4 or more points.
50.0% chance that New England Patriots win or are within 4 points of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Buffalo Bills (-4)New England Patriots (4)
50.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
Ceasers-11553.5%F

Buffalo Bills (-4)
Ceasers-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Buffalo Bills (-4) spread must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
50.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
Ceasers-11553.5%F

New England Patriots (4)
Ceasers-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the New England Patriots (4) spread must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

50.0% chance that the total final score will be over 49.5 points.
50.0% chance that the total final score will be under 49.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (49.5)Under (49.5)
50.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
DraftKings-11052.4%F

Over (49.5)
DraftKings-110
Break Even52.4%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Over (49.5) must be more likely than 52.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
50.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
DraftKings-11052.4%F

Under (49.5)
DraftKings-110
Break Even52.4%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Under (49.5) must be more likely than 52.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

50.0% chance that the total final score will be over 50.5 points.
50.0% chance that the total final score will be under 50.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (50.5)Under (50.5)
50.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
Ceasers-11553.5%F

Over (50.5)
Ceasers-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Over (50.5) must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
50.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
Ceasers-11553.5%F

Under (50.5)
Ceasers-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Under (50.5) must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.