Marquel Mederos vs Mason Jones

MMA - August 22, 2026 7:00 PM

Marquel Mederos have a 29.0% of winning.
Mason Jones have a 71.0% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Marquel MederosMason Jones
29.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Ceasers24029.4%B

Marquel Mederos
Ceasers240
Break Even29.4%
Probability29.0%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos must be more likely than 29.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.0%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
BetMGM24029.4%B

Marquel Mederos
BetMGM240
Break Even29.4%
Probability29.0%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos must be more likely than 29.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.0%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
BetUS23230.1%C

Marquel Mederos
BetUS232
Break Even30.1%
Probability29.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos must be more likely than 30.1% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings23030.3%C

Marquel Mederos
DraftKings230
Break Even30.3%
Probability29.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos must be more likely than 30.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada23030.3%C

Marquel Mederos
Bovada230
Break Even30.3%
Probability29.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos must be more likely than 30.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag22630.7%C

Marquel Mederos
Betonline.ag226
Break Even30.7%
Probability29.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos must be more likely than 30.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Fanduel22031.2%F

Marquel Mederos
220
Break Even31.2%
Probability29.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos must be more likely than 31.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers22031.2%F

Marquel Mederos
BetRivers220
Break Even31.2%
Probability29.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos must be more likely than 31.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 29.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
71.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-27573.3%F

Mason Jones
Betonline.ag-275
Break Even73.3%
Probability71.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones must be more likely than 73.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-28073.7%F

Mason Jones
Bovada-280
Break Even73.7%
Probability71.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones must be more likely than 73.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS-28273.8%F

Mason Jones
BetUS-282
Break Even73.8%
Probability71.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones must be more likely than 73.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-28574.0%F

Mason Jones
DraftKings-285
Break Even74.0%
Probability71.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones must be more likely than 74.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers-28674.1%F

Mason Jones
BetRivers-286
Break Even74.1%
Probability71.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones must be more likely than 74.1% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanduel-29574.7%F

Mason Jones
-295
Break Even74.7%
Probability71.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones must be more likely than 74.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-30075.0%F

Mason Jones
Ceasers-300
Break Even75.0%
Probability71.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones must be more likely than 75.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM-30075.0%F

Mason Jones
BetMGM-300
Break Even75.0%
Probability71.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones must be more likely than 75.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

48.0% chance that Marquel Mederos win or are within 3.5 points of winning.
52.0% chance that Mason Jones win by 3.5 or more points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Marquel Mederos (3.5)Mason Jones (-3.5)
48.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-10551.2%F

Marquel Mederos (3.5)
DraftKings-105
Break Even51.2%
Probability48.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos (3.5) spread must be more likely than 51.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 48.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-10551.2%F

Marquel Mederos (3.5)
Bovada-105
Break Even51.2%
Probability48.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Marquel Mederos (3.5) spread must be more likely than 51.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 48.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
52.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-12555.6%F

Mason Jones (-3.5)
DraftKings-125
Break Even55.6%
Probability52.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 55.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 52.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-12555.6%F

Mason Jones (-3.5)
Bovada-125
Break Even55.6%
Probability52.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mason Jones (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 55.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 52.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

63.4% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
36.6% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
63.4%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-20066.7%F

Over (2.5)
DraftKings-200
Break Even66.7%
Probability63.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 66.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-20066.7%F

Over (2.5)
Ceasers-200
Break Even66.7%
Probability63.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 66.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag-20066.7%F

Over (2.5)
Betonline.ag-200
Break Even66.7%
Probability63.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 66.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS-20066.7%F

Over (2.5)
BetUS-200
Break Even66.7%
Probability63.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 66.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-20567.2%F

Over (2.5)
Bovada-205
Break Even67.2%
Probability63.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 67.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
36.6%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag17436.5%A-

Under (2.5)
Betonline.ag174
Break Even36.5%
Probability36.6%
GradeA-
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 36.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.6%, more likely, giving this bet a A- grade.
BetUS16637.6%C

Under (2.5)
BetUS166
Break Even37.6%
Probability36.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 37.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada15539.2%F

Under (2.5)
Bovada155
Break Even39.2%
Probability36.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 39.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings15439.4%F

Under (2.5)
DraftKings154
Break Even39.4%
Probability36.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 39.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers15040.0%F

Under (2.5)
Ceasers150
Break Even40.0%
Probability36.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 40.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.