Yaroslav Amosov vs Joel Alvarez

MMA - May 9, 2026 7:15 PM

Joel Alvarez have a 38.2% of winning.
Yaroslav Amosov have a 61.8% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Joel AlvarezYaroslav Amosov
38.2%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag15539.2%C

Joel Alvarez
Betonline.ag155
Break Even39.2%
Probability38.2%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Joel Alvarez must be more likely than 39.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 38.2%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings15439.4%C

Joel Alvarez
DraftKings154
Break Even39.4%
Probability38.2%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Joel Alvarez must be more likely than 39.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 38.2%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada15339.5%C

Joel Alvarez
Bovada153
Break Even39.5%
Probability38.2%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Joel Alvarez must be more likely than 39.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 38.2%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Ceasers15040.0%C

Joel Alvarez
Ceasers150
Break Even40.0%
Probability38.2%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Joel Alvarez must be more likely than 40.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 38.2%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetMGM15040.0%C

Joel Alvarez
BetMGM150
Break Even40.0%
Probability38.2%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Joel Alvarez must be more likely than 40.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 38.2%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Fanduel14441.0%F

Joel Alvarez
144
Break Even41.0%
Probability38.2%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Joel Alvarez must be more likely than 41.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 38.2%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
61.8%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Ceasers-17563.6%C

Yaroslav Amosov
Ceasers-175
Break Even63.6%
Probability61.8%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Yaroslav Amosov must be more likely than 63.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.8%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada-17763.9%F

Yaroslav Amosov
Bovada-177
Break Even63.9%
Probability61.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Yaroslav Amosov must be more likely than 63.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag-18064.3%F

Yaroslav Amosov
Betonline.ag-180
Break Even64.3%
Probability61.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Yaroslav Amosov must be more likely than 64.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-18564.9%F

Yaroslav Amosov
DraftKings-185
Break Even64.9%
Probability61.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Yaroslav Amosov must be more likely than 64.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM-18564.9%F

Yaroslav Amosov
BetMGM-185
Break Even64.9%
Probability61.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Yaroslav Amosov must be more likely than 64.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanduel-18665.0%F

Yaroslav Amosov
-186
Break Even65.0%
Probability61.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Yaroslav Amosov must be more likely than 65.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

53.5% chance that Joel Alvarez win or are within 3.5 points of winning.
46.5% chance that Yaroslav Amosov win by 3.5 or more points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Joel Alvarez (3.5)Yaroslav Amosov (-3.5)
53.5%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-13557.4%F

Joel Alvarez (3.5)
DraftKings-135
Break Even57.4%
Probability53.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Joel Alvarez (3.5) spread must be more likely than 57.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 53.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
46.5%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings10050.0%F

Yaroslav Amosov (-3.5)
DraftKings100
Break Even50.0%
Probability46.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Yaroslav Amosov (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 50.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 46.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

65.2% chance that the total final score will be over 1.5 points.
34.8% chance that the total final score will be under 1.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (1.5)Under (1.5)
65.2%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-21067.7%F

Over (1.5)
DraftKings-210
Break Even67.7%
Probability65.2%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (1.5) must be more likely than 67.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 65.2%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag-22569.2%F

Over (1.5)
Betonline.ag-225
Break Even69.2%
Probability65.2%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (1.5) must be more likely than 69.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 65.2%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
34.8%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag18934.6%A-

Under (1.5)
Betonline.ag189
Break Even34.6%
Probability34.8%
GradeA-
For this to be profitable, Under (1.5) must be more likely than 34.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 34.8%, more likely, giving this bet a A- grade.
DraftKings16038.5%F

Under (1.5)
DraftKings160
Break Even38.5%
Probability34.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (1.5) must be more likely than 38.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 34.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

53.1% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
46.9% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
53.1%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada-13056.5%F

Over (2.5)
Bovada-130
Break Even56.5%
Probability53.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 56.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 53.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
46.9%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada10050.0%F

Under (2.5)
Bovada100
Break Even50.0%
Probability46.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 50.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 46.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.