Mateusz Rebecki vs Grant Dawson

MMA - May 9, 2026 6:45 PM

Grant Dawson have a 61.0% of winning.
Mateusz Rebecki have a 39.0% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Grant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
61.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
Betonline.ag-17063.0%C

Grant Dawson
Betonline.ag-170
Break Even63.0%
Probability61.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Grant Dawson must be more likely than 63.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada-17263.2%F

Grant Dawson
Bovada-172
Break Even63.2%
Probability61.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Grant Dawson must be more likely than 63.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-17563.6%F

Grant Dawson
DraftKings-175
Break Even63.6%
Probability61.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Grant Dawson must be more likely than 63.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-17563.6%F

Grant Dawson
Ceasers-175
Break Even63.6%
Probability61.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Grant Dawson must be more likely than 63.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanduel-18064.3%F

Grant Dawson
-180
Break Even64.3%
Probability61.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Grant Dawson must be more likely than 64.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers-18064.3%F

Grant Dawson
BetRivers-180
Break Even64.3%
Probability61.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Grant Dawson must be more likely than 64.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM-18564.9%F

Grant Dawson
BetMGM-185
Break Even64.9%
Probability61.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Grant Dawson must be more likely than 64.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 61.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
39.0%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
BetMGM15040.0%C

Mateusz Rebecki
BetMGM150
Break Even40.0%
Probability39.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Mateusz Rebecki must be more likely than 40.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 39.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada14740.5%C

Mateusz Rebecki
Bovada147
Break Even40.5%
Probability39.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Mateusz Rebecki must be more likely than 40.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 39.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings14540.8%C

Mateusz Rebecki
DraftKings145
Break Even40.8%
Probability39.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Mateusz Rebecki must be more likely than 40.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 39.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Ceasers14540.8%C

Mateusz Rebecki
Ceasers145
Break Even40.8%
Probability39.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Mateusz Rebecki must be more likely than 40.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 39.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag14540.8%C

Mateusz Rebecki
Betonline.ag145
Break Even40.8%
Probability39.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Mateusz Rebecki must be more likely than 40.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 39.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetRivers14341.2%F

Mateusz Rebecki
BetRivers143
Break Even41.2%
Probability39.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mateusz Rebecki must be more likely than 41.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 39.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanduel14041.7%F

Mateusz Rebecki
140
Break Even41.7%
Probability39.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mateusz Rebecki must be more likely than 41.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 39.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

42.5% chance that Grant Dawson win by 3.5 or more points.
57.5% chance that Mateusz Rebecki win or are within 3.5 points of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Grant Dawson (-3.5)Mateusz Rebecki (3.5)
42.5%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
DraftKings12045.5%F

Grant Dawson (-3.5)
DraftKings120
Break Even45.5%
Probability42.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Grant Dawson (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 45.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 42.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
57.5%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
DraftKings-16061.5%F

Mateusz Rebecki (3.5)
DraftKings-160
Break Even61.5%
Probability57.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Mateusz Rebecki (3.5) spread must be more likely than 61.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 57.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

57.2% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
42.8% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
57.2%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
Betonline.ag-14559.2%F

Over (2.5)
Betonline.ag-145
Break Even59.2%
Probability57.2%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 59.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 57.2%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-15460.6%F

Over (2.5)
DraftKings-154
Break Even60.6%
Probability57.2%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 60.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 57.2%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-15560.8%F

Over (2.5)
Bovada-155
Break Even60.8%
Probability57.2%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 60.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 57.2%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
42.8%
LineBreak
Even
Grade
Betonline.ag12544.4%C

Under (2.5)
Betonline.ag125
Break Even44.4%
Probability42.8%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 44.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 42.8%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings12045.5%F

Under (2.5)
DraftKings120
Break Even45.5%
Probability42.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 45.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 42.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada12045.5%F

Under (2.5)
Bovada120
Break Even45.5%
Probability42.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 45.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 42.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.