Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy

MMA - March 21, 2026 5:45 PM

Lerone Murphy have a 32.7% of winning.
Movsar Evloev have a 67.3% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Lerone MurphyMovsar Evloev
32.7%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Ceasers20033.3%C

Lerone Murphy
Ceasers200
Break Even33.3%
Probability32.7%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy must be more likely than 33.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.7%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetRivers20033.3%C

Lerone Murphy
BetRivers200
Break Even33.3%
Probability32.7%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy must be more likely than 33.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.7%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Fanduel19833.6%C

Lerone Murphy
198
Break Even33.6%
Probability32.7%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy must be more likely than 33.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.7%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings19533.9%C

Lerone Murphy
DraftKings195
Break Even33.9%
Probability32.7%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy must be more likely than 33.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.7%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada19533.9%C

Lerone Murphy
Bovada195
Break Even33.9%
Probability32.7%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy must be more likely than 33.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.7%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag19034.5%C

Lerone Murphy
Betonline.ag190
Break Even34.5%
Probability32.7%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy must be more likely than 34.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.7%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetUS18635.0%F

Lerone Murphy
BetUS186
Break Even35.0%
Probability32.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy must be more likely than 35.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM18535.1%F

Lerone Murphy
BetMGM185
Break Even35.1%
Probability32.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy must be more likely than 35.1% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
67.3%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
BetMGM-22569.2%C

Movsar Evloev
BetMGM-225
Break Even69.2%
Probability67.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev must be more likely than 69.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag-22569.2%C

Movsar Evloev
Betonline.ag-225
Break Even69.2%
Probability67.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev must be more likely than 69.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetUS-22569.2%C

Movsar Evloev
BetUS-225
Break Even69.2%
Probability67.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev must be more likely than 69.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada-23570.1%F

Movsar Evloev
Bovada-235
Break Even70.1%
Probability67.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev must be more likely than 70.1% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-23870.4%F

Movsar Evloev
DraftKings-238
Break Even70.4%
Probability67.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev must be more likely than 70.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanduel-24070.6%F

Movsar Evloev
-240
Break Even70.6%
Probability67.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev must be more likely than 70.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-24070.6%F

Movsar Evloev
Ceasers-240
Break Even70.6%
Probability67.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev must be more likely than 70.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers-25071.4%F

Movsar Evloev
BetRivers-250
Break Even71.4%
Probability67.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev must be more likely than 71.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

54.7% chance that Lerone Murphy win or are within 5.5 points of winning.
45.3% chance that Movsar Evloev win by 5.5 or more points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Lerone Murphy (5.5)Movsar Evloev (-5.5)
54.7%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada-13557.4%F

Lerone Murphy (5.5)
Bovada-135
Break Even57.4%
Probability54.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy (5.5) spread must be more likely than 57.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 54.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-14559.2%F

Lerone Murphy (5.5)
DraftKings-145
Break Even59.2%
Probability54.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Lerone Murphy (5.5) spread must be more likely than 59.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 54.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
45.3%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings11047.6%F

Movsar Evloev (-5.5)
DraftKings110
Break Even47.6%
Probability45.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev (-5.5) spread must be more likely than 47.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 45.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada10548.8%F

Movsar Evloev (-5.5)
Bovada105
Break Even48.8%
Probability45.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Movsar Evloev (-5.5) spread must be more likely than 48.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 45.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

71.4% chance that the total final score will be over 4.5 points.
28.6% chance that the total final score will be under 4.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (4.5)Under (4.5)
71.4%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-28574.0%F

Over (4.5)
Betonline.ag-285
Break Even74.0%
Probability71.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (4.5) must be more likely than 74.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS-28574.0%F

Over (4.5)
BetUS-285
Break Even74.0%
Probability71.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (4.5) must be more likely than 74.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-31575.9%F

Over (4.5)
DraftKings-315
Break Even75.9%
Probability71.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (4.5) must be more likely than 75.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-32576.5%F

Over (4.5)
Bovada-325
Break Even76.5%
Probability71.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (4.5) must be more likely than 76.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 71.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
28.6%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag23429.9%C

Under (4.5)
Betonline.ag234
Break Even29.9%
Probability28.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (4.5) must be more likely than 29.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 28.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetUS23429.9%C

Under (4.5)
BetUS234
Break Even29.9%
Probability28.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (4.5) must be more likely than 29.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 28.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings23030.3%C

Under (4.5)
DraftKings230
Break Even30.3%
Probability28.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (4.5) must be more likely than 30.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 28.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada23030.3%C

Under (4.5)
Bovada230
Break Even30.3%
Probability28.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (4.5) must be more likely than 30.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 28.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.