Michael Aswell vs Luke Riley

MMA - March 21, 2026 5:15 PM

Luke Riley have a 63.7% of winning.
Michael Aswell have a 36.3% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Luke RileyMichael Aswell
63.7%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-18064.3%C

Luke Riley
Betonline.ag-180
Break Even64.3%
Probability63.7%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley must be more likely than 64.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.7%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings-19265.8%F

Luke Riley
DraftKings-192
Break Even65.8%
Probability63.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley must be more likely than 65.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS-19265.8%F

Luke Riley
BetUS-192
Break Even65.8%
Probability63.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley must be more likely than 65.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-19566.1%F

Luke Riley
Ceasers-195
Break Even66.1%
Probability63.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley must be more likely than 66.1% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM-20066.7%F

Luke Riley
BetMGM-200
Break Even66.7%
Probability63.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley must be more likely than 66.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-20066.7%F

Luke Riley
Bovada-200
Break Even66.7%
Probability63.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley must be more likely than 66.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanduel-21568.3%F

Luke Riley
-215
Break Even68.3%
Probability63.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley must be more likely than 68.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers-21568.3%F

Luke Riley
BetRivers-215
Break Even68.3%
Probability63.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley must be more likely than 68.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 63.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
36.3%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Fanduel17236.8%C

Michael Aswell
172
Break Even36.8%
Probability36.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell must be more likely than 36.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetRivers17037.0%C

Michael Aswell
BetRivers170
Break Even37.0%
Probability36.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell must be more likely than 37.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada17037.0%C

Michael Aswell
Bovada170
Break Even37.0%
Probability36.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell must be more likely than 37.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Ceasers16537.7%C

Michael Aswell
Ceasers165
Break Even37.7%
Probability36.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell must be more likely than 37.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetMGM16537.7%C

Michael Aswell
BetMGM165
Break Even37.7%
Probability36.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell must be more likely than 37.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings16038.5%F

Michael Aswell
DraftKings160
Break Even38.5%
Probability36.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell must be more likely than 38.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS16038.5%F

Michael Aswell
BetUS160
Break Even38.5%
Probability36.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell must be more likely than 38.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag15539.2%F

Michael Aswell
Betonline.ag155
Break Even39.2%
Probability36.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell must be more likely than 39.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

50.0% chance that Luke Riley win by 3.5 or more points.
50.0% chance that Michael Aswell win or are within 3.5 points of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Luke Riley (-3.5)Michael Aswell (3.5)
50.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-11553.5%F

Luke Riley (-3.5)
DraftKings-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-11553.5%F

Luke Riley (-3.5)
Bovada-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Luke Riley (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
50.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-11553.5%F

Michael Aswell (3.5)
DraftKings-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell (3.5) spread must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-11553.5%F

Michael Aswell (3.5)
Bovada-115
Break Even53.5%
Probability50.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Michael Aswell (3.5) spread must be more likely than 53.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 50.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

59.1% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
40.9% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
59.1%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-15060.0%C

Over (2.5)
Betonline.ag-150
Break Even60.0%
Probability59.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 60.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 59.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetUS-15060.0%C

Over (2.5)
BetUS-150
Break Even60.0%
Probability59.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 60.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 59.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings-17563.6%F

Over (2.5)
DraftKings-175
Break Even63.6%
Probability59.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 63.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 59.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-18564.9%F

Over (2.5)
Bovada-185
Break Even64.9%
Probability59.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 64.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 59.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
40.9%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada14041.7%C

Under (2.5)
Bovada140
Break Even41.7%
Probability40.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 41.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 40.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings13542.6%C

Under (2.5)
DraftKings135
Break Even42.6%
Probability40.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 42.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 40.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag13043.5%F

Under (2.5)
Betonline.ag130
Break Even43.5%
Probability40.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 43.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 40.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS12644.2%F

Under (2.5)
BetUS126
Break Even44.2%
Probability40.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 44.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 40.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.