Marlon Vera vs David Martinez

MMA - February 28, 2026 9:15 PM

David Martinez have a 72.4% of winning.
Marlon Vera have a 27.6% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

David MartinezMarlon Vera
72.4%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Fanduel-30075.0%F

David Martinez
-300
Break Even75.0%
Probability72.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, David Martinez must be more likely than 75.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 72.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM-30075.0%F

David Martinez
BetMGM-300
Break Even75.0%
Probability72.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, David Martinez must be more likely than 75.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 72.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-30575.3%F

David Martinez
DraftKings-305
Break Even75.3%
Probability72.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, David Martinez must be more likely than 75.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 72.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers-30575.3%F

David Martinez
BetRivers-305
Break Even75.3%
Probability72.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, David Martinez must be more likely than 75.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 72.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag-31075.6%F

David Martinez
Betonline.ag-310
Break Even75.6%
Probability72.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, David Martinez must be more likely than 75.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 72.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS-31075.6%F

David Martinez
BetUS-310
Break Even75.6%
Probability72.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, David Martinez must be more likely than 75.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 72.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-33076.7%F

David Martinez
Ceasers-330
Break Even76.7%
Probability72.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, David Martinez must be more likely than 76.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 72.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
27.6%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Ceasers26027.8%B

Marlon Vera
Ceasers260
Break Even27.8%
Probability27.6%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, Marlon Vera must be more likely than 27.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 27.6%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
Betonline.ag26027.8%B

Marlon Vera
Betonline.ag260
Break Even27.8%
Probability27.6%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, Marlon Vera must be more likely than 27.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 27.6%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
BetUS25428.2%C

Marlon Vera
BetUS254
Break Even28.2%
Probability27.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Marlon Vera must be more likely than 28.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 27.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Fanduel24529.0%C

Marlon Vera
245
Break Even29.0%
Probability27.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Marlon Vera must be more likely than 29.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 27.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings24529.0%C

Marlon Vera
DraftKings245
Break Even29.0%
Probability27.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Marlon Vera must be more likely than 29.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 27.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetMGM24029.4%C

Marlon Vera
BetMGM240
Break Even29.4%
Probability27.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Marlon Vera must be more likely than 29.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 27.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetRivers23529.9%F

Marlon Vera
BetRivers235
Break Even29.9%
Probability27.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Marlon Vera must be more likely than 29.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 27.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

45.5% chance that David Martinez win by 3.5 or more points.
54.5% chance that Marlon Vera win or are within 3.5 points of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

David Martinez (-3.5)Marlon Vera (3.5)
45.5%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings10548.8%F

David Martinez (-3.5)
DraftKings105
Break Even48.8%
Probability45.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, David Martinez (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 48.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 45.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
54.5%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-14058.3%F

Marlon Vera (3.5)
DraftKings-140
Break Even58.3%
Probability54.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Marlon Vera (3.5) spread must be more likely than 58.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 54.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

77.1% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
22.9% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
77.1%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-40080.0%F

Over (2.5)
Betonline.ag-400
Break Even80.0%
Probability77.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 80.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 77.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS-40080.0%F

Over (2.5)
BetUS-400
Break Even80.0%
Probability77.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 80.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 77.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-47582.6%F

Over (2.5)
DraftKings-475
Break Even82.6%
Probability77.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 82.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 77.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
22.9%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings32523.5%C

Under (2.5)
DraftKings325
Break Even23.5%
Probability22.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 23.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag31624.0%C

Under (2.5)
Betonline.ag316
Break Even24.0%
Probability22.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 24.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetUS30924.4%C

Under (2.5)
BetUS309
Break Even24.4%
Probability22.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 24.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.