Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay

MMA - January 31, 2026 5:15 PM

Keiichiro Nakamura have a 44.9% of winning.
Sebastian Szalay have a 55.1% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Keiichiro NakamuraSebastian Szalay
44.9%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Ceasers11546.5%C

Keiichiro Nakamura
Ceasers115
Break Even46.5%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Keiichiro Nakamura must be more likely than 46.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetMGM11546.5%C

Keiichiro Nakamura
BetMGM115
Break Even46.5%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Keiichiro Nakamura must be more likely than 46.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada11546.5%C

Keiichiro Nakamura
Bovada115
Break Even46.5%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Keiichiro Nakamura must be more likely than 46.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Fanduel11446.7%C

Keiichiro Nakamura
114
Break Even46.7%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Keiichiro Nakamura must be more likely than 46.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings11446.7%C

Keiichiro Nakamura
DraftKings114
Break Even46.7%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Keiichiro Nakamura must be more likely than 46.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetRivers11047.6%F

Keiichiro Nakamura
BetRivers110
Break Even47.6%
Probability44.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Keiichiro Nakamura must be more likely than 47.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag11047.6%F

Keiichiro Nakamura
Betonline.ag110
Break Even47.6%
Probability44.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Keiichiro Nakamura must be more likely than 47.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
55.1%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-13056.5%C

Sebastian Szalay
Betonline.ag-130
Break Even56.5%
Probability55.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Sebastian Szalay must be more likely than 56.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Fanduel-13457.3%F

Sebastian Szalay
-134
Break Even57.3%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Sebastian Szalay must be more likely than 57.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-13557.4%F

Sebastian Szalay
DraftKings-135
Break Even57.4%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Sebastian Szalay must be more likely than 57.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-13557.4%F

Sebastian Szalay
Ceasers-135
Break Even57.4%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Sebastian Szalay must be more likely than 57.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-13557.4%F

Sebastian Szalay
Bovada-135
Break Even57.4%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Sebastian Szalay must be more likely than 57.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers-13757.8%F

Sebastian Szalay
BetRivers-137
Break Even57.8%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Sebastian Szalay must be more likely than 57.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM-14058.3%F

Sebastian Szalay
BetMGM-140
Break Even58.3%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Sebastian Szalay must be more likely than 58.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

57.5% chance that Keiichiro Nakamura win or are within 3.5 points of winning.
42.5% chance that Sebastian Szalay win by 3.5 or more points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Keiichiro Nakamura (3.5)Sebastian Szalay (-3.5)
57.5%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada-15560.8%F

Keiichiro Nakamura (3.5)
Bovada-155
Break Even60.8%
Probability57.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Keiichiro Nakamura (3.5) spread must be more likely than 60.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 57.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-16562.3%F

Keiichiro Nakamura (3.5)
DraftKings-165
Break Even62.3%
Probability57.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Keiichiro Nakamura (3.5) spread must be more likely than 62.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 57.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
42.5%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings12045.5%F

Sebastian Szalay (-3.5)
DraftKings120
Break Even45.5%
Probability42.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Sebastian Szalay (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 45.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 42.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada12045.5%F

Sebastian Szalay (-3.5)
Bovada120
Break Even45.5%
Probability42.5%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Sebastian Szalay (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 45.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 42.5%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

66.0% chance that the total final score will be over 1.5 points.
34.0% chance that the total final score will be under 1.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (1.5)Under (1.5)
66.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-22068.8%F

Over (1.5)
Betonline.ag-220
Break Even68.8%
Probability66.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (1.5) must be more likely than 68.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 66.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-23069.7%F

Over (1.5)
DraftKings-230
Break Even69.7%
Probability66.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (1.5) must be more likely than 69.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 66.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
34.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag18635.0%C

Under (1.5)
Betonline.ag186
Break Even35.0%
Probability34.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (1.5) must be more likely than 35.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 34.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings17536.4%F

Under (1.5)
DraftKings175
Break Even36.4%
Probability34.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (1.5) must be more likely than 36.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 34.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

46.9% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
53.1% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
46.9%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada10050.0%F

Over (2.5)
Bovada100
Break Even50.0%
Probability46.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 50.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 46.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
53.1%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada-13056.5%F

Under (2.5)
Bovada-130
Break Even56.5%
Probability53.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 56.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 53.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.