Melquizael Costa vs Morgan Charriere

MMA - December 13, 2025 10:15 PM

Melquizael Costa have a 55.1% of winning.
Morgan Charriere have a 44.9% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Melquizael CostaMorgan Charriere
55.1%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Ceasers-13056.5%C

Melquizael Costa
Ceasers-130
Break Even56.5%
Probability55.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa must be more likely than 56.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetRivers-13056.5%C

Melquizael Costa
BetRivers-130
Break Even56.5%
Probability55.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa must be more likely than 56.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings-13557.4%F

Melquizael Costa
DraftKings-135
Break Even57.4%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa must be more likely than 57.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS-13557.4%F

Melquizael Costa
BetUS-135
Break Even57.4%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa must be more likely than 57.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanduel-13657.6%F

Melquizael Costa
-136
Break Even57.6%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa must be more likely than 57.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-13858.0%F

Melquizael Costa
Bovada-138
Break Even58.0%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa must be more likely than 58.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag-13858.0%F

Melquizael Costa
Betonline.ag-138
Break Even58.0%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa must be more likely than 58.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM-14058.3%F

Melquizael Costa
BetMGM-140
Break Even58.3%
Probability55.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa must be more likely than 58.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
44.9%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag11845.9%C

Morgan Charriere
Betonline.ag118
Break Even45.9%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere must be more likely than 45.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada11746.1%C

Morgan Charriere
Bovada117
Break Even46.1%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere must be more likely than 46.1% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Fanduel11646.3%C

Morgan Charriere
116
Break Even46.3%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere must be more likely than 46.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetMGM11546.5%C

Morgan Charriere
BetMGM115
Break Even46.5%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere must be more likely than 46.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings11446.7%C

Morgan Charriere
DraftKings114
Break Even46.7%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere must be more likely than 46.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetUS11446.7%C

Morgan Charriere
BetUS114
Break Even46.7%
Probability44.9%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere must be more likely than 46.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Ceasers11047.6%F

Morgan Charriere
Ceasers110
Break Even47.6%
Probability44.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere must be more likely than 47.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers10648.5%F

Morgan Charriere
BetRivers106
Break Even48.5%
Probability44.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere must be more likely than 48.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

62.9% chance that Melquizael Costa win or are within 3.5 points of winning.
37.1% chance that Morgan Charriere win by 3.5 or more points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Melquizael Costa (3.5)Morgan Charriere (-3.5)
62.9%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-20567.2%F

Melquizael Costa (3.5)
DraftKings-205
Break Even67.2%
Probability62.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa (3.5) spread must be more likely than 67.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 62.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-20567.2%F

Melquizael Costa (3.5)
Bovada-205
Break Even67.2%
Probability62.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Melquizael Costa (3.5) spread must be more likely than 67.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 62.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
37.1%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada15539.2%F

Morgan Charriere (-3.5)
Bovada155
Break Even39.2%
Probability37.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 39.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 37.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings15040.0%F

Morgan Charriere (-3.5)
DraftKings150
Break Even40.0%
Probability37.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Morgan Charriere (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 40.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 37.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

64.0% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
36.0% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
64.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-20066.7%F

Over (2.5)
Betonline.ag-200
Break Even66.7%
Probability64.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 66.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 64.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS-20066.7%F

Over (2.5)
BetUS-200
Break Even66.7%
Probability64.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 66.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 64.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-21067.7%F

Over (2.5)
DraftKings-210
Break Even67.7%
Probability64.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 67.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 64.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-21067.7%F

Over (2.5)
Bovada-210
Break Even67.7%
Probability64.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 67.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 64.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
36.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag17436.5%C

Under (2.5)
Betonline.ag174
Break Even36.5%
Probability36.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 36.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetUS16637.6%C

Under (2.5)
BetUS166
Break Even37.6%
Probability36.0%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 37.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.0%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings16038.5%F

Under (2.5)
DraftKings160
Break Even38.5%
Probability36.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 38.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada16038.5%F

Under (2.5)
Bovada160
Break Even38.5%
Probability36.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 38.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 36.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.