Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott

MMA - December 6, 2025 9:45 PM

Henry Cejudo have a 30.3% of winning.
Payton Talbott have a 69.7% of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Henry CejudoPayton Talbott
30.3%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Ceasers22530.8%B

Henry Cejudo
Ceasers225
Break Even30.8%
Probability30.3%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, Henry Cejudo must be more likely than 30.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 30.3%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
BetMGM22530.8%B

Henry Cejudo
BetMGM225
Break Even30.8%
Probability30.3%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, Henry Cejudo must be more likely than 30.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 30.3%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
Fanduel21531.7%C

Henry Cejudo
215
Break Even31.7%
Probability30.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Henry Cejudo must be more likely than 31.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 30.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetRivers21531.7%C

Henry Cejudo
BetRivers215
Break Even31.7%
Probability30.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Henry Cejudo must be more likely than 31.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 30.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag21531.7%C

Henry Cejudo
Betonline.ag215
Break Even31.7%
Probability30.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Henry Cejudo must be more likely than 31.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 30.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings21032.3%C

Henry Cejudo
DraftKings210
Break Even32.3%
Probability30.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Henry Cejudo must be more likely than 32.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 30.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada20532.8%F

Henry Cejudo
Bovada205
Break Even32.8%
Probability30.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Henry Cejudo must be more likely than 32.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 30.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
69.7%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada-24571.0%C

Payton Talbott
Bovada-245
Break Even71.0%
Probability69.7%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Payton Talbott must be more likely than 71.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 69.7%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag-25571.8%F

Payton Talbott
Betonline.ag-255
Break Even71.8%
Probability69.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Payton Talbott must be more likely than 71.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 69.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-25872.1%F

Payton Talbott
DraftKings-258
Break Even72.1%
Probability69.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Payton Talbott must be more likely than 72.1% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 69.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-27573.3%F

Payton Talbott
Ceasers-275
Break Even73.3%
Probability69.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Payton Talbott must be more likely than 73.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 69.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM-27573.3%F

Payton Talbott
BetMGM-275
Break Even73.3%
Probability69.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Payton Talbott must be more likely than 73.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 69.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers-27873.5%F

Payton Talbott
BetRivers-278
Break Even73.5%
Probability69.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Payton Talbott must be more likely than 73.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 69.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanduel-29074.4%F

Payton Talbott
-290
Break Even74.4%
Probability69.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Payton Talbott must be more likely than 74.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 69.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Spreads:

51.0% chance that Henry Cejudo win or are within 3.5 points of winning.
49.0% chance that Payton Talbott win by 3.5 or more points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Henry Cejudo (3.5)Payton Talbott (-3.5)
51.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-12054.5%F

Henry Cejudo (3.5)
DraftKings-120
Break Even54.5%
Probability51.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Henry Cejudo (3.5) spread must be more likely than 54.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 51.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
49.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings-11052.4%F

Payton Talbott (-3.5)
DraftKings-110
Break Even52.4%
Probability49.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Payton Talbott (-3.5) spread must be more likely than 52.4% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 49.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

67.7% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
32.3% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
67.7%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Betonline.ag-23570.1%F

Over (2.5)
Betonline.ag-235
Break Even70.1%
Probability67.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 70.1% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-26072.2%F

Over (2.5)
DraftKings-260
Break Even72.2%
Probability67.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 72.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-26072.2%F

Over (2.5)
Bovada-260
Break Even72.2%
Probability67.7%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Over (2.5) must be more likely than 72.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 67.7%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
32.3%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
DraftKings19533.9%C

Under (2.5)
DraftKings195
Break Even33.9%
Probability32.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 33.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag19533.9%C

Under (2.5)
Betonline.ag195
Break Even33.9%
Probability32.3%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 33.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.3%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada19034.5%F

Under (2.5)
Bovada190
Break Even34.5%
Probability32.3%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, Under (2.5) must be more likely than 34.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 32.3%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.