Burnley vs Aston Villa

EPL - May 10, 2026 8:00 AM

Aston Villa have a 60.0% of winning.
Burnley have a 17.8% of winning.
A Draw has a 22.1% probability.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Aston VillaBurnley
60.0%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
BetMGM-16562.3%F

Aston Villa
BetMGM-165
Break Even62.3%
Probability60.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa must be more likely than 62.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 60.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Lowvig-16962.8%F

Aston Villa
-169
Break Even62.8%
Probability60.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa must be more likely than 62.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 60.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag-16962.8%F

Aston Villa
Betonline.ag-169
Break Even62.8%
Probability60.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa must be more likely than 62.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 60.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
DraftKings-17063.0%F

Aston Villa
DraftKings-170
Break Even63.0%
Probability60.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa must be more likely than 63.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 60.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Ceasers-17063.0%F

Aston Villa
Ceasers-170
Break Even63.0%
Probability60.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa must be more likely than 63.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 60.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Fanatics-17063.0%F

Aston Villa
Fanatics-170
Break Even63.0%
Probability60.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa must be more likely than 63.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 60.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Bovada-17463.5%F

Aston Villa
Bovada-174
Break Even63.5%
Probability60.0%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa must be more likely than 63.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 60.0%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
17.8%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
BetRivers46017.9%B

Burnley
BetRivers460
Break Even17.9%
Probability17.8%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, the Burnley must be more likely than 17.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 17.8%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
Fanduel45018.2%B

Burnley
450
Break Even18.2%
Probability17.8%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, the Burnley must be more likely than 18.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 17.8%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
Lowvig44018.5%C

Burnley
440
Break Even18.5%
Probability17.8%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Burnley must be more likely than 18.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 17.8%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag44018.5%C

Burnley
Betonline.ag440
Break Even18.5%
Probability17.8%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Burnley must be more likely than 18.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 17.8%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings42519.0%C

Burnley
DraftKings425
Break Even19.0%
Probability17.8%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Burnley must be more likely than 19.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 17.8%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Ceasers42519.0%C

Burnley
Ceasers425
Break Even19.0%
Probability17.8%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Burnley must be more likely than 19.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 17.8%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetMGM42519.0%C

Burnley
BetMGM425
Break Even19.0%
Probability17.8%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Burnley must be more likely than 19.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 17.8%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Draw
22.1%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Lowvig34822.3%B

Draw
348
Break Even22.3%
Probability22.1%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, the Draw must be more likely than 22.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.1%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
Betonline.ag34822.3%B

Draw
Betonline.ag348
Break Even22.3%
Probability22.1%
GradeB
For this to be profitable, the Draw must be more likely than 22.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.1%, less likely, giving this bet a B grade.
Bovada34022.7%C

Draw
Bovada340
Break Even22.7%
Probability22.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Draw must be more likely than 22.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetUS34022.7%C

Draw
BetUS340
Break Even22.7%
Probability22.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Draw must be more likely than 22.7% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Fanatics33023.3%C

Draw
Fanatics330
Break Even23.3%
Probability22.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Draw must be more likely than 23.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
DraftKings32023.8%C

Draw
DraftKings320
Break Even23.8%
Probability22.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Draw must be more likely than 23.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Ceasers32023.8%C

Draw
Ceasers320
Break Even23.8%
Probability22.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Draw must be more likely than 23.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 22.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.

Spreads:

59.2% chance that Aston Villa win by 0.5 or more points.
40.8% chance that Burnley win or are within 0.5 points of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Aston Villa (-0.5)Burnley (0.5)
59.2%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
MyBookie-17763.9%F

Aston Villa (-0.5)
MyBookie-177
Break Even63.9%
Probability59.2%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa (-0.5) spread must be more likely than 63.9% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 59.2%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
40.8%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
MyBookie12744.1%F

Burnley (0.5)
MyBookie127
Break Even44.1%
Probability40.8%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Burnley (0.5) spread must be more likely than 44.1% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 40.8%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

47.1% chance that Aston Villa win by 1 or more points.
52.9% chance that Burnley win or are within 1 points of winning.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Aston Villa (-1)Burnley (1)
47.1%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Lowvig10648.5%C

Aston Villa (-1)
106
Break Even48.5%
Probability47.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa (-1) spread must be more likely than 48.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 47.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag10648.5%C

Aston Villa (-1)
Betonline.ag106
Break Even48.5%
Probability47.1%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa (-1) spread must be more likely than 48.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 47.1%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Bovada10249.5%F

Aston Villa (-1)
Bovada102
Break Even49.5%
Probability47.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa (-1) spread must be more likely than 49.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 47.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS10249.5%F

Aston Villa (-1)
BetUS102
Break Even49.5%
Probability47.1%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Aston Villa (-1) spread must be more likely than 49.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 47.1%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
52.9%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Bovada-12255.0%F

Burnley (1)
Bovada-122
Break Even55.0%
Probability52.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Burnley (1) spread must be more likely than 55.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 52.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Lowvig-12255.0%F

Burnley (1)
-122
Break Even55.0%
Probability52.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Burnley (1) spread must be more likely than 55.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 52.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag-12255.0%F

Burnley (1)
Betonline.ag-122
Break Even55.0%
Probability52.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Burnley (1) spread must be more likely than 55.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 52.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetUS-12255.0%F

Burnley (1)
BetUS-122
Break Even55.0%
Probability52.9%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Burnley (1) spread must be more likely than 55.0% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 52.9%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.

Totals:

55.4% chance that the total final score will be over 2.5 points.
44.6% chance that the total final score will be under 2.5 points.

Click on a line grade to learn more.

Over (2.5)Under (2.5)
55.4%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Lowvig-13657.6%F

Over (2.5)
-136
Break Even57.6%
Probability55.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Over (2.5) must be more likely than 57.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
Betonline.ag-13657.6%F

Over (2.5)
Betonline.ag-136
Break Even57.6%
Probability55.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Over (2.5) must be more likely than 57.6% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetRivers-14358.8%F

Over (2.5)
BetRivers-143
Break Even58.8%
Probability55.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Over (2.5) must be more likely than 58.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM-14559.2%F

Over (2.5)
BetMGM-145
Break Even59.2%
Probability55.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Over (2.5) must be more likely than 59.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
MyBookie-14659.3%F

Over (2.5)
MyBookie-146
Break Even59.3%
Probability55.4%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Over (2.5) must be more likely than 59.3% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 55.4%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
44.6%
LineBreak
Even		Grade
Lowvig12045.5%C

Under (2.5)
120
Break Even45.5%
Probability44.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Under (2.5) must be more likely than 45.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
Betonline.ag12045.5%C

Under (2.5)
Betonline.ag120
Break Even45.5%
Probability44.6%
GradeC
For this to be profitable, the Under (2.5) must be more likely than 45.5% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.6%, less likely, giving this bet a C grade.
BetRivers11247.2%F

Under (2.5)
BetRivers112
Break Even47.2%
Probability44.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Under (2.5) must be more likely than 47.2% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
BetMGM10548.8%F

Under (2.5)
BetMGM105
Break Even48.8%
Probability44.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Under (2.5) must be more likely than 48.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.
MyBookie10548.8%F

Under (2.5)
MyBookie105
Break Even48.8%
Probability44.6%
GradeF
For this to be profitable, the Under (2.5) must be more likely than 48.8% to win.
However, the calculated probability is 44.6%, less likely, giving this bet a F grade.